Why do you think your paper is highly cited?

The effects of increases in greenhouse gas and other human climate influences have now been detected in many climate variables, but this was the first formal attribution study to identify the effect of human-induced climate change on a climate impact variable—the area burnt by forest fires in Canada. I think this has led to considerable interest among the climate impacts community. The article is also cited in many forestry papers since it demonstrates a direct impact of climate change on forests.

 Does it describe a new discovery, methodology, or synthesis of knowledge?

We synthesized forest fire and climate observations, along with output from a climate model, in order to demonstrate a statistically significant increase in area burnt, consistent with that expected due to climate change.

 Would you summarize the significance of your paper in layman's terms?

Our study showed that the increase in the area burnt by forest fires in Canada is due to human-induced climate change. It was the first study to formally identify a significant impact of human-induced climate change.

 How did you become involved in this research and were any particular problems encountered along the way?

In 2003, I was working in Victoria, British Columbia, along with Andrew Weaver and Francis Zwiers, on the detection of human influence on climate. That year saw many large fires in southern BC, including one which burnt close to my wife's aunt's house in Kelowna, BC. This prompted us to investigate whether there was a link between forest fire changes and climate change. We found that it was important to use actual temperature observations, rather than relying on model-based reanalyses of surface temperature, which proved to be unreliable over Canada.

 Where do you see your research leading in the future?

Forest fires are now included explicitly in several climate models, including the one here at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, where I now work. It should soon be possible to repeat the study using simulated area burnt directly from the model, rather than using a statistical model to predict area burnt changes from temperature. The methods applied in the paper could also be used in studies of other climate change impacts.

 Do you foresee any social or political implications for your research?

The research shows that climate change is already having significant impacts on our environment.

Dr. Nathan P. Gillett
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Environment Canada
Victoria, BC, Canada

Keywords: greenhouse gas, human climate influences, climate variables, forest fires in canada, human-induced climate change, the canadian centre for climate modelling and analysis.